Fundamental analysis by Admin

The USD index dipped to a historical 30-year low of 76.77 level with the expectations of rate cut by the FED this week, and a further rate cut by December FOMC meeting.

NZD traded firmer after New Zealand trade deficit for the month of September came in narrower than expected. The lower trade deficit was largely attributed to the strong export.

Crude oil prices rose above $93 per barrel and gold traded to a fresh 28-year high. This has pushed the CAD to a 47-year peak against USD.

Market will trade cautious ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting which will begin tonight. Market will also keep a close eye on the U.S consumer confidence data for more clues.

Fundamental analysis by Admin

The greenback fell against the major currencies despite US ISM services data (Aug) coming in stronger than expected.

ECB and BOE left its benchmark rates unchanged as widely expected. EUR gained after Trichet's comment that price stability is crucial during uncertainty of financial market condition.

High yielder AUD rallied on recovery in US stock markets. AUD is also supported by robust job data yesterday and higher gold price.

News & Fundamental Analysis

Exacerbating the decline seemed to be concerns over the allotment of cash by major Central Banks as they continue to inject liquidity to institutions for the third straight day. EUR fell against the USD last night as market speculate that the central bank may decide to hold off tightening monetary conditions given the very precarious nature of money markets in the 13 member region. Also, with increased risk aversion, more unwinding of carry trades on the AUD, NZD and STG are likely to continue for a while.

The USD index, a measure of USD’s value against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.44% to a reading of 81.087 yesterday, rebounded from a 15-year low reached a week ago at 79.957. A close above 81 would indicate a bullish pattern for the USD.

Markets will be anxiously awaiting Wednesday's CPI report, as signs that price pressures remain uncomfortably high for the Fed could lead fixed income markets to stop pricing in a September rate cut, since the central bank is unlikely to risk letting inflation get out of hand in order to spare the equity markets

Sell USD to JPY at 118.55 for target at 115.55. Place stop if breaks 119.20.

Highlights

Concerns over the widening fallout from the US sub-prime mortgage debacle have propelled global stock markets and high-yielding currencies to go lower and sought shelter in government bonds. The US Dow Industrials dropped through the 13,100 figure only to close at 13,240 ahead of the weekend. The Federal Reserve provided $38 billion in reserves in three separate moves to curb current credit crunch concerns that seem bent on not disappearing any time soon

Aside from the Canadian dollar, both the New Zealand and Australian dollars continued to remain under pressure throughout the session. The AUD and NZD both fell below its support levels of 0.8600 and the 0.7600. However, helping the Canadian dollar remain afloat was a report on employment in the New York morning. Although the net change in employment was far less than expected at 11.3K, the employment rate dropped to lowest in 33 years. Incidentally, the survey results give some indications that the labor market continues to remain tight, bolstering speculation of a rate hike in the commodity.

USD highlights

Dollar gained some lost ground after Fed kept rates on hold and reiterated that inflation remains the primary concern. EURUSD traded to a low of 1.3734 while USDJPY traded to a high of 119.05. Although the recent market volatility and tighter credit conditions were mentioned in the statement, the Fed is still optimistic about growth picking up in the future.

Weaker than expected retail sales growth in July brought the Pound to its lowest level against EUR for the past 2 months. EURGBP traded to a high of 0.6818 and is still hovering above the 0.6800 levels. Sterling is also pressured by the recent run of weaker than expected data, causing the market to pare back on expectations for further BoE hikes. Attention will be turned to the BoE Quarterly Inflation Report for clues on the rate outlook.

RBA raised rates to 6.50% as expected. AUDUSD rose as a result but remain under 0.8600 as market remains concerned over the stability of the US stock and credit market. However, RBA cited developments to date do not appear to have change the broader global outlook and world commodities prices will remain a driver for the Australian economy.

XAU/USD Gold remains on the uptrend. Buy on dips to 665 target 685. Place stop below 650.

UK highlights

Despite UK Industrial production reporting an increase of 0.1% m/m in June, as expected by the market, a technical break on the EURGBP cross-triggered a Sterling sell-off. GBPUSD dropped to a low of 2.0281 below rebounding to 2.0321.

However, all eyes will be on the FOMC meeting today, with market widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rate on hold at 5.25%. If the Fed maintains that inflationary pressure remains a predominant concern, we may see a possible rebound in the dollar as technicals are pointing towards dollar-oversold levels.

Having broken out the downtrend line EURAUD look to rally up to 1.6400. Long on dips at 1.6050. Place stops below 1.5950.

News Highlights

The Dow Jones Industrial Average had the first two-day gain in two weeks to 13,463.33 and the S&P500 rose to 1,472.20 causes the investors to resume the carry trades both to global equity and to high yielder currencies.

EUR may gain against the dollar after the ECB President Trichet said at the post meeting press conference that “strong vigilance is of the essence”, which is a clear signal of a Sep rate hike.

Today USD may be under pressure as market eyeing for US July Non-farm payroll report, which may be weaker. This is due to earlier US ADP report on Wednesday, which came in at 48k, weaker than expectations of 100k.

Buy AUD/JPY at 101.85 for target 105. Stops at 100.47

Better take vacation

The US stock market rally in computer and consumer shares lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average 150 points to 13,362.37 and the S&P500 increased 0.7% to 1465.81 as investors think it’s a good time to get in. The FX market moves accordingly as risk aversion drives the direction of carry trades.

The dollar weakens after the ADP estimate for July’s US non-farm payroll came in at 48k fell below market expectation of 100k.

Today's important news will be the rate decision from BOE and ECB, expects no change. But market will see the statement from ECB President Trichet, if he signal further tightening needed, the EUR is likely to strengthen.

Sell USD/CAD at 1.0600 for target 1.0350. Stops at 1.0755

News Highlights

Expect the unwinding of carry trade to continue. Both the AUD and NZD likely to dip further. However if we have stronger AUD June Retail Sales data this morning, AUD should be more supported than NZD. AUDNZD will remain firm.

Buy EUR/JPY at 161.50 for target 164.00. Stops at 159.60

News Highlights

Investors risk aversion eased after the global stock market rebounded yesterday, the S&P’s 500 index surged 1.15% to 1474, the Dow Jones industrial average roses more than 100pts to 13358.

Important data today will be the release of US June personal spending and income expecting 0.5% vs. 0.4% in May. We’ll also see the release of Canada May GDP tonight, the market expects a reading of 0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% m/m in Apr.

News Highlights

Risk aversion was the theme that marked most of yesterday’s sessions. Global equity markets fell more than 2%, prompting carry trades liquidation, a long-awaited move. Overnight, USD/JPY traded to a low of 118.03; AUD/USD to 0.8667 and NZD/USD to 0.7783. U.S. new home sales dropped 6.6 percent in the month of June. Clearly, the U.S. housing market is in the slumps as credit woes worsen.

Earlier, the German Ifo survey revealed a deterioration of business sentiment, dropping from 107 to 106.4 in July.

The yen’s gains this morning however were capped by the release of a negative CPI of –0.1%. Nonetheless, a further meltdown of the equity markets could ignite another round of risk aversion.

U.S. GDP is due tonight. With the recent disappointment in U.S. data, GDP could come out on the weaker side.

News Highlights

The dollar regained strength during yesterday sessions despite a weak U.S. existing home sales that showed a decline of 3.8%. The Fed's Beige Book report on economic conditions for July was in line with the June report, noting that housing construction and lending continued to decline. Nonetheless, weak credit conditions in the U.S. is likely to continue to place pressure on the dollar going forward. Look out for U.S. new home sales tonight, which will shed more light on the U.S. housing market.

Australian CPI released yesterday morning was better than expected, a 1.2% q/q increase versus 1% forecast. The release drove the currency up above 0.88 level to a high of 0.8870 from the morning’s low of 0.8789.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as expected hiked rates to 8.25%. However, they indicated that there were done with their hiking frenzy and that a high NZD would be unsustainable. New Zealand trade balance is due later in the day.

In Asia, Japan CPI is due today, continued flat or negative y/y readings on CPI should dampen expectations of an August rate hike. Any yen gains would be capped.

News Highlights

The dollar extends its decline against the yen and high yielders amidst a dearth of economic data yesterday. The continual rise in the high-yielders indicate that markets are still risk-taking. News that one of China’s state owned banks has bought a 3.1 percent stake in Barclays, one of the UK’s biggest banks send the pound soaring above 2.0600.

Overnight, NZD/USD traded to a high of 0.8072; AUD/USD to 0.8841 whilst GBP/USD to 2.0597. The AUD and NZD are likely to remain firm on the back of strong Australian producer prices and speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be raising interest rates to 8.25 percent later this week.

Elsewhere in Asia, the yen struggles to keep its gains. If a break of 120.80 is sustained, we would see a test of 118.70.

With renewed concerns on U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, new and existing U.S. home sales tomorrow would be key data to look out for.

GBP/USD Buy at 2.0605 for 2.0750 target. Stops at 2.0540.

Technical Analysis GBP/USD using Bollinger Band System

well...now it's the very confusing time...most traders trap on sell at 2.04.
Many traders asking me, it's still up or no?
trend still up, but NOT TOO STRONG ....
just wait to sell, if you buy, then you speculate with your money.
I will give you sell signal if it comes.
If you follow me to buy from 2.0147, just place stop profit on 2.0526.
Otherwise, up!
if you want to have conference call service, just add my domains yahoo.
thank you

News Highlights

The dollar continues to be pressured by U.S. subprime woes. New York session saw a fall in U.S. equities on rumors that a German bank will be reporting large subprime losses and also talk that Standard and Poor's could be downgrading European mortgages. This spurred an unwinding of carry trades. USD/JPY traded to a low of 120.88 on risk aversion. Overnight, AUD/USD traded to a low of 0.8755 whilst NZD/USD traded to a low of 0.7936. However losses were brief as markets took the chance to buy on dips. The pound however held steady on stronger second quarter GDP growth, growing 3.0% y/y.

Strong commodity prices continue to support the AUD, NZD and gold. Gold continues its rally to 686.00

A further fall in equities could trigger yet another bout of risk aversion. With the subprime sector being watched so closely, next week's reports of existing, new and pending home sales will be particularly market moving.

Sell USD/JPY at 121.90 for 120.77. Stops at 122.49.

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News Highlights

BoE minutes showed a 6-3 vote in favour of the interest rate hike in July, less hawkish than market expected. Markets still predict a hike to 6.00% by the end of the year, but there is less certainty now of another quarter point hike in 2008.

Canadian CPI declined by 0.2% in Jun from May, and came in at 2.2% y/y, below expectations for a 2.5% reading. Core CPI came in at 2.5% y/y, slightly below expectations of 2.6%.

US June CPI was broadly in-line with expectations. CPI increased 0.2% from May, and grew 2.7% y/y (exp 2.6%). Core CPI grew 2.2%, inline with market expectations.

US housing starts rose 2.3% in June to a 1467K unit annual rate, above the 1450K forecast. However, building permits fell 7.5% to hit a 10yr low of 1402K (exp 1490K).

Fed chief Bernanke told congress that US economy would grow slower than expected and inflation remained the chief concern. He also said that subprime issues would weigh on the economy for several quarters and would probably get worse before they get better.

USD/CAD is trading at 1.0448. Buy CAD at 1.0500, target for 1.0300, and place stop above 1.0610.

News Highlights

The German ZEW survey declined for a 2nd consecutive month to 10.4 in July, far weaker than the 19.8 expected by market.

US net foreign capital inflows for May totaled USD$105.9bln, far exceeding market expectations of around USD$70bln. The increase from April’s inflow of USD$83.6bln was entirely from private investors. Official sources were net sellers by USD$2.8Bln.

US June industrial production was up 0.5% (exp 0.4%), while capacity utilization came in at 81.7%, also slightly above the 81.5% forecast.

The NAHB housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of current market conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell to 24 this month, the lowest reading since January 1991.

The BoJ voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in June. The Board reaffirmed its intentions to raise rates gradually in-line with growth and inflation, but stressed the need to keep rates low to help the economy progress.

XAU/USD is trading at 665.40. Buy XAU at 661.00, target for 690, and place stop below 640.

News Highlights

Manufacturing in the New York Federal Reserve district increased to 26.46 in July, above expectations of a reading of 18. However, the dollar remained unmoved by the positive reading.

Euro-zone inflation increased by 0.1% in June and remained steady at +1.9% y/y, staying for the 4th consecutive month close but below the upper boundary of the ECB’s comfort zone of 2.0% y/y.

Canadian manufacturing shipments for June decreased by 0.1%, below expectations of +0.5%. However, data did nothing to stop the CAD from reaching a 30yr high of C$1.0417, as higher oil prices and favorable market flows pushed the CAD higher.

AUD/USD is trading at 0.8714. Buy AUD at 0.8670, target for 0.8880, and place stop below 0.8580.

News Highlights

US June Retail Sales came in –0.9% m/m, much weaker than expected –0.1%.

Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July revealed increase to 92.4, above expectations for an 86.0 result.

June US import prices up +1.0% m/m, higher than expectations of +0.7%.

This week will see important US, UK, Eurozone & Canadian CPI data.

EUR/AUD is trading at 1.5830. Buy EUR at 1.5820, target for 1.6050, and place stop below 1.5700.

Technical Analysis NZD/USD (Weekly)

NZD/USD has been up from 0.7238, to 0.7877.
NZD/USD fibo retracement only 23.6, and it shows strong up trend.
The next target will be 0.80xx as long carry trade happened.
But be Carefull, in market, we need to consider the unwinding carry trade that could lead NZD/USD to down.
For New Enter, suggest to order buy stop above 0.7877 with stop loss around 0.7756. or you can take profit from its down, place sell stop order around 0.7725, with stop loss around 0.7877. Anyway, for my self, i consider NOT TO BUY. just wait to sell.
Risk in your hand. Don't force to enter market if it's already high.
Happy Trading! Have a nice weekend!

Technical Analysis GBP/USD

How about your trading?Last time, i suggest you to order buy stop around 2.0147.. Have you done it? How many pips have you got? It should be shared with me .. :) hahaha...
I think the trend still UP to target 2.05xx, but remember, this is the market!! Everything could be happened, so to protect my profit buy from 1.9746, I place stop profit below 2.0222.
Next,i order sell stop around 2.0206 with Stop Loss around 2.0265.
Happy Trading!!

News & Fundamental Analysis

The dollar remains under pressure from the deteriorating subprime mortgage market. The euro set a record high at 1.3797 versus the dollar and the sterling hovers around high levels 2.03. Economic data from US came out in line with expectations and did not impact the dollar much. Trade deficit rose from 58.5 billion to 60 billion in May as expected.

The Bank of Japan left interest rates at 0.50% as expected last night. The report showed board members voted 8-1 to keep the rates unchanged, a signal that August may still be too early for the central bank to raise rates. The yen remains under pressure from carry trades.

The market will look at US retail sales report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and business inventories for more clues on the economic conditions and outlook.

CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0600 for a target of 1.0300, stop at 1.0760.

News Highlights

The US dollar remained on the defensive against European currencies, though EURUSD held below the 1.3787 high. Against the yen, the USD strengthened to a high of 122.53 as key carry trades, e.g., NZDJPY and AUDJPY rebounded from overnight lows. US equity and credit markets stabilized, while crude prices moderated slightly.

The near-term outlook for the greenback remained quite negative due to uncertainty regarding the deteriorating subprime mortgage industry, and its potential to spark a credit crunch and cause investors to flee risky trades.

The Bank of Japan will release the results of its policy meeting some time around midday. The Bank is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, but, with markets pricing roughly 66% odds of a hike in August, the press conference at 2:30 GMT will be watched for signs that the BOJ is moving towards tightening.

CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0650/80 for a target of 1.0400, stop at 1.0760.

News Highlights

The dollar fell sharply across the board as unfavourable housing-sector-related earnings guidance along with the decision by rating agency S&P to review credit ratings on a series of sub-prime assets put US credit markets under renewed pressure, and pushed US equity markets and yields down further.

Speaking Tuesday on inflation, Fed Chairman Bernanke steered clear of commenting on the economy or interest rates, nor did he provide any signal of a shift in focus away from core to headline inflation. Rather, Bernanke noted that "although inflation expectations seem much better anchored today than they were" in the past, "they appear to remain imperfectly anchored.” No market-moving effect was found in his speech.

The Bank of Canada hiked rates by 25bp to 4.50% Tuesday, as widely expected. While the accompanying statement left the door open for "some modest further increase," the BoC omitted the "in the near-term" reference that was included in May, suggesting a September pause. With the market pricing a good deal of tightening going into the meeting, the subsequent reaction to the hike was a reduction in tightening expectations going forward. The Canadian currency finished lower against the US dollar.

AUD/NZD With the lows hit last Tuesday at 1.0903 very fractionally above the 76.4 retrace of the entire move up from Dec 05 lows. LT 76.4 retrace holds are often seen as significant turning points. Attractive to look at longs with a stop just below 1.0900.

Fundamental analysis by Admin

The dollar remained largely unchanged on Monday, with little data out to inspire moves. As data on consumer spending and the housing market has been sufficiently weak to preclude serious discussion of a policy tightening and with rate expectations still under upside pressure in other major economies, the USD has remained on the defensive. High oil prices also continue to weigh on the dollar, which diverts USD accumulation from Asia reserve managers to petro-currency funds, likely to diversify dollar holdings.

The Canadian dollar, the biggest winner across the board, hit a fresh 30-year low at 1.0447 against the dollar. Bank of Canada is likely to increase its interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.50% today. Besides, recent data showed Canada labor market is in good shape and manufacturing expanded. Also commodity prices are moving in the Canadian dollar’s favor.

Market will be watching Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on inflation tonight for clues on the FX market.

With the lows hit last Tuesday at 1.0903 very fractionally above the 76.4 retrace of the entire move up from Dec 05 lows. LT 76.4 retrace holds are often seen as significant turning points. Attractive to look at longs with a stop just below 1.0900.

Technical Analysis GBP/USD

GBP seems hawkish against USD after BOE interest rate which decide to 5.75%.
For the uptrend strong moment, if there any retrace, commonly until 23.6 fibo.
With the trend line still up, breaking 2.0147 will confirm the up with target 2.0299.
Try to buy on dip with stop loss below 2.0150 or place buy stop above 2.0147.
If there any questions, please leave it in the comment box.
Have good trade! God Bless You

Fundamental Highlights (previous week and upcoming)

In early session, the dollar gained instantly after non-farm payrolls came out at 132k, better than the forecast of 120k. Following the robust job report, the euro fell to 13570 versus the dollar, while the sterling slipped to as low as 2.0060.

However, the euro and sterling pared losses against the dollar later as the jobs data merely confirmed a view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold at 5.25% this year, in contrast to the euro zone and Britain, where further monetary tightening is in store.

The star performer was the Canadian dollar after a report showed that 34.8k jobs were created in June, beating the consensus forecast of 17.0k. The US dollar fell to a new 30-year low at 1.0465 versus the Canadian dollar. The Bank of Canada is likely to increase its interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.50% on its policy meeting tomorrow.

GBP is consolidating at the top of the range, stabilising above the previous highs at 2.0134. The next significant resistance comes in at 2.0299. Overall the trend remains to the upside. Look to buy on dip around 2.0060.

News Highlights

The Dollar rose versus the majors after the better-than-expected U.S. services sector activity and ADP employer services. The European Central Bank kept the rate unchanged at 4 percent, but was still quite hawkish about the possibility of another rate hike later this year. The EURUSD was traded at high of 1.3660 before it slipped below 1.3600. In addition, Bank of England increased the rate as expected to 5.75% and said that inflation risks remained to the upside.

The biggest winner yesterday was New Zealand Dollar, reaching 0.7881, the highest since 1985.

As for today, most important data will be U.S. change in Non-farm payroll. Other key economic data is Sterling Industrial production and Canada Employment number.

News Highlights

It was US National Holiday yesterday, and FX market remained very much range bound. GBP traded above 2.0200 ahead of Bank of England meeting today. The Euro against USD was traded within the range between 1.3607 and 1.3630. Commodity block also were traded in a range. Oil price is above US 70 price mark again, and hence gave some support to CAD last night.

Rate decisions for Bank of England and European Central Bank will be the key focus today. Market wildly expects that BoE raise the rate by 25bps to 5.75% while ECB keeps the rate unchanged at 4.00%

AUD was quite steady after RBA left the interest rate unchanged. The long-term outlook for AUD is still bullish with a target of 0.8900. Look to buy on dip at 0.8460.

Fundamental analysis by Admin

The Dollar slightly rebounded on Tuesday but the correction was quite shallow ahead of US national holiday. After GBP reached 26-year high, NZ dollar also hit 22-year high yesterday afternoon.

Australia’s central bank left official cash rate unchanged at 6.25% on Wednesday, in line with expectation. Aussie against US dollar was little changed after RBA rates kept steady.

Today is the National Holiday for the U.S. Market may be choppy due to the thin liquidity. Other important data will be AUD trade balance and EURZONE retail sales.

AUD was quite steady after RBA left the interest rate unchanged. The long-term outlook for AUD is still bullish with a target of 0.8900. Look to buy on dip at 0.8460.

US could be target of terrorist attack

The Dollar declined across the board last night, reaching 26-year low against sterling ahead of an upcoming U.S. national holiday on concern that the U.S. may be the target of the terrorist attack. Market ignored better than expected US manufacturing index. Instead, market turned its attention toward the weaker than expected US ISM price paid, indicating no inflation in the US. The euro was about 0.7% higher at 1.3635, and the low of the Japanese yen was at 122.09.

Sterling break a new record

Poundsterling breaks a 26 six years highest record against USD after the US ISM manufacturing data. Although US manufacturing data showed increasing to 56 from 55 last month, but market still support for Sterling to break a new high record according to the expectation on rise of the interest rate which date on July,5,2007

AUD analysis

AUD reached the target of 0.8530 this morning. The underlying trend is still very much bullish. Look to buy on dip at 0.8450, target at 0.8680.

US depends on ISM Manufacturing

As for today, light data in the morning may keep the currency trading in a range. US ISM manufacturing data will be the only key data for the US.

JPY Tankan report showing not good result

Slightly worse-than-expected Japan Tankan report didn’t bring too much volatility to the market. Carry trades is still intact.

The Down of USD

The Dollar lost the ground across the board last Friday except for the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollars shoot up to 30-year highs due to the stop loss triggered. However, the Canadian dollar rebounded back to 1.0660 from 1.0470 low after a weaker than expected GDP data.

JPY Fundamental

The JPY weakened slightly after data showed that Japan’s nationwide core CPI drop 0.1 percent in May, reinforcing market expectation that the BOJ will only raise rates in gradual manner, thus, fueling the carry trades to begin all over again.

US Fundamental

The Dollar was a little changed yesterday after the FED announced its decision to keep interest rate unchanged as expected. The statement following was seen as a little hawkish as it repeated worries about inflation pressures but failed to mention concern regarding U.S. housing market or slow down in growth.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis (June/28/07)

what happen next?

wait until USD interest rate statement. i put sell stop on 1.9969 ..strong support on 1.9895 (if it's break then will down far)

Fundamental analysis (GBP) by Admin

On Wednesday, Sterling got pressure against the USD after break the resistance at $2 come up with the expectation of higher interest rate next week.
Sterling down 0.2% to $1.9950, economists expect the interest rate will be 5.75%.
John Gieve, Deputy Governor of Bank of England stated on tuesday, he gave vote to rise the interest rate in order to hold the demand of credit.
Towards to Bank of England's decision next week, market will focus on this meeting, the result could be use to measure the effect of the hikes interest rate since August, 2006.

Fundamental analysis (YEN) by Admin

Yen strengthen on Wednesday when the volatility of the stock exchange and the worry about the down of US mortgage sector, let trader to stop carry trade.

Review of Fundamental Analysis (USD) by Admin

USD weakened against Yen on Wednesday, June,27, after the report of Durable Goods Orders US (May) is lower than expected.
Trader become more wary to fluctuation on the carry trade after the volatility of the global market focus more on the US mortgage sector.
The actual Durable Goods Order down more than expected to -2.8% from 1.1% on April.
Dollar weakened 0.7% against Yen at 122.34.

Be careful with the effect of unwinding carry trade

Commodities ended lower as investors square their positions in the market. Gold hits its lowest record in three and a half months and U.S. crude futures fell by nearly two percents last night.

JPY report

The JPY continues to strengthen against EUR and the USD as investors unwind their carry trades position in the midst of volatile stock market resulting from concerns about fallout in the U.S. subprime mortagage sector.

Warning from Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi about weakness of the country’s currency was helping JPY even further.

POLL_US Durable Goods Order seen down 1 pct

June, 27, 2007, (12.30 GMT)
US Durable Goods Orders, Forecast -1.0, down from +0.8 in April

New York,

A decline for new aircraft order seems likely push US durable goods orders down in May, snapping 3 months string of gains.
Economist said, they expect a fall in volatile aircraft orders to be the culprit for weaker number in May. While order for non defense capital goods are expected remain positive territory, though a Reuters poll has them growing at 0.5 percent in May, below April's 0.8 percent advance.

Durable Goods Orders measure future demand for big-ticket consumer items such as computers and appliances as well as for civilian and military aircraft, machinery and primary metals. The government will release the report at 12.30 GMT on Wednesday.

new blog in forex trading (please read)

Today, in June,25,2007, i start to share my prediction in forex market especially in fundamental and technical analysis. I usually invest either in long term and short term with help of several indicators that i trust it's good. I focus more on fundamental which is 80% and the rest are for technical. for short term is the other way round.

For those who have checked on my blog please feel free to put on your comments , prognosis (prediction) and your calculation as well. this blog is created for the purpose of sharing our ideas. therefore , if you have any disagreement with my prediction, please feel free to post it and discuss it with us. thank you. Hope to heard from you as soon as possible(asap).

You may also add my yahoo messenger cool_simone2002@yahoo.com.
Forex is learning and discussing, so if we want to be success in market, we need to know each others opinion then together we will understand where the market will be.
If you want to submit your indicators, please to send to my email cool_simone2002@yahoo.com and i will upload it to this blog.
Success for us
Thank you.

NOTE : FOREX IS LOGIC! NOT GUESSING!

Regards,

Nelsen, W.