The German ZEW survey declined for a 2nd consecutive month to 10.4 in July, far weaker than the 19.8 expected by market.
US net foreign capital inflows for May totaled USD$105.9bln, far exceeding market expectations of around USD$70bln. The increase from April’s inflow of USD$83.6bln was entirely from private investors. Official sources were net sellers by USD$2.8Bln.
US June industrial production was up 0.5% (exp 0.4%), while capacity utilization came in at 81.7%, also slightly above the 81.5% forecast.
The NAHB housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of current market conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell to 24 this month, the lowest reading since January 1991.
The BoJ voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in June. The Board reaffirmed its intentions to raise rates gradually in-line with growth and inflation, but stressed the need to keep rates low to help the economy progress.
XAU/USD is trading at 665.40. Buy XAU at 661.00, target for 690, and place stop below 640.
DOMAINS YAHOO FOR CONFERENCE CALL SERVICE
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
Tuesday, July 17, 2007
News Highlights
Manufacturing in the New York Federal Reserve district increased to 26.46 in July, above expectations of a reading of 18. However, the dollar remained unmoved by the positive reading.
Euro-zone inflation increased by 0.1% in June and remained steady at +1.9% y/y, staying for the 4th consecutive month close but below the upper boundary of the ECB’s comfort zone of 2.0% y/y.
Canadian manufacturing shipments for June decreased by 0.1%, below expectations of +0.5%. However, data did nothing to stop the CAD from reaching a 30yr high of C$1.0417, as higher oil prices and favorable market flows pushed the CAD higher.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.8714. Buy AUD at 0.8670, target for 0.8880, and place stop below 0.8580.
Euro-zone inflation increased by 0.1% in June and remained steady at +1.9% y/y, staying for the 4th consecutive month close but below the upper boundary of the ECB’s comfort zone of 2.0% y/y.
Canadian manufacturing shipments for June decreased by 0.1%, below expectations of +0.5%. However, data did nothing to stop the CAD from reaching a 30yr high of C$1.0417, as higher oil prices and favorable market flows pushed the CAD higher.
AUD/USD is trading at 0.8714. Buy AUD at 0.8670, target for 0.8880, and place stop below 0.8580.
Monday, July 16, 2007
News Highlights
US June Retail Sales came in –0.9% m/m, much weaker than expected –0.1%.
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July revealed increase to 92.4, above expectations for an 86.0 result.
June US import prices up +1.0% m/m, higher than expectations of +0.7%.
This week will see important US, UK, Eurozone & Canadian CPI data.
EUR/AUD is trading at 1.5830. Buy EUR at 1.5820, target for 1.6050, and place stop below 1.5700.
Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July revealed increase to 92.4, above expectations for an 86.0 result.
June US import prices up +1.0% m/m, higher than expectations of +0.7%.
This week will see important US, UK, Eurozone & Canadian CPI data.
EUR/AUD is trading at 1.5830. Buy EUR at 1.5820, target for 1.6050, and place stop below 1.5700.
Friday, July 13, 2007
Technical Analysis NZD/USD (Weekly)
NZD/USD has been up from 0.7238, to 0.7877.
NZD/USD fibo retracement only 23.6, and it shows strong up trend.
The next target will be 0.80xx as long carry trade happened.
But be Carefull, in market, we need to consider the unwinding carry trade that could lead NZD/USD to down.
For New Enter, suggest to order buy stop above 0.7877 with stop loss around 0.7756. or you can take profit from its down, place sell stop order around 0.7725, with stop loss around 0.7877. Anyway, for my self, i consider NOT TO BUY. just wait to sell.
Risk in your hand. Don't force to enter market if it's already high.
Happy Trading! Have a nice weekend!
Technical Analysis GBP/USD
How about your trading?Last time, i suggest you to order buy stop around 2.0147.. Have you done it? How many pips have you got? It should be shared with me .. :) hahaha...
I think the trend still UP to target 2.05xx, but remember, this is the market!! Everything could be happened, so to protect my profit buy from 1.9746, I place stop profit below 2.0222.
Next,i order sell stop around 2.0206 with Stop Loss around 2.0265.
Happy Trading!!
News & Fundamental Analysis
The dollar remains under pressure from the deteriorating subprime mortgage market. The euro set a record high at 1.3797 versus the dollar and the sterling hovers around high levels 2.03. Economic data from US came out in line with expectations and did not impact the dollar much. Trade deficit rose from 58.5 billion to 60 billion in May as expected.
The Bank of Japan left interest rates at 0.50% as expected last night. The report showed board members voted 8-1 to keep the rates unchanged, a signal that August may still be too early for the central bank to raise rates. The yen remains under pressure from carry trades.
The market will look at US retail sales report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and business inventories for more clues on the economic conditions and outlook.
CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0600 for a target of 1.0300, stop at 1.0760.
The Bank of Japan left interest rates at 0.50% as expected last night. The report showed board members voted 8-1 to keep the rates unchanged, a signal that August may still be too early for the central bank to raise rates. The yen remains under pressure from carry trades.
The market will look at US retail sales report, University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and business inventories for more clues on the economic conditions and outlook.
CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0600 for a target of 1.0300, stop at 1.0760.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
News Highlights
The US dollar remained on the defensive against European currencies, though EURUSD held below the 1.3787 high. Against the yen, the USD strengthened to a high of 122.53 as key carry trades, e.g., NZDJPY and AUDJPY rebounded from overnight lows. US equity and credit markets stabilized, while crude prices moderated slightly.
The near-term outlook for the greenback remained quite negative due to uncertainty regarding the deteriorating subprime mortgage industry, and its potential to spark a credit crunch and cause investors to flee risky trades.
The Bank of Japan will release the results of its policy meeting some time around midday. The Bank is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, but, with markets pricing roughly 66% odds of a hike in August, the press conference at 2:30 GMT will be watched for signs that the BOJ is moving towards tightening.
CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0650/80 for a target of 1.0400, stop at 1.0760.
The near-term outlook for the greenback remained quite negative due to uncertainty regarding the deteriorating subprime mortgage industry, and its potential to spark a credit crunch and cause investors to flee risky trades.
The Bank of Japan will release the results of its policy meeting some time around midday. The Bank is widely expected to leave policy unchanged, but, with markets pricing roughly 66% odds of a hike in August, the press conference at 2:30 GMT will be watched for signs that the BOJ is moving towards tightening.
CAD will out perform USD in the months ahead with market pricing in another rate hike by the end of the year. The underlying trend remains intact from a MT/LT perspective. Look to sell any significant bounce around 1.0650/80 for a target of 1.0400, stop at 1.0760.
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