The dollar regained strength during yesterday sessions despite a weak U.S. existing home sales that showed a decline of 3.8%. The Fed's Beige Book report on economic conditions for July was in line with the June report, noting that housing construction and lending continued to decline. Nonetheless, weak credit conditions in the U.S. is likely to continue to place pressure on the dollar going forward. Look out for U.S. new home sales tonight, which will shed more light on the U.S. housing market.
Australian CPI released yesterday morning was better than expected, a 1.2% q/q increase versus 1% forecast. The release drove the currency up above 0.88 level to a high of 0.8870 from the morning’s low of 0.8789.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, as expected hiked rates to 8.25%. However, they indicated that there were done with their hiking frenzy and that a high NZD would be unsustainable. New Zealand trade balance is due later in the day.
In Asia, Japan CPI is due today, continued flat or negative y/y readings on CPI should dampen expectations of an August rate hike. Any yen gains would be capped.
DOMAINS YAHOO FOR CONFERENCE CALL SERVICE
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Tuesday, July 24, 2007
News Highlights
The dollar extends its decline against the yen and high yielders amidst a dearth of economic data yesterday. The continual rise in the high-yielders indicate that markets are still risk-taking. News that one of China’s state owned banks has bought a 3.1 percent stake in Barclays, one of the UK’s biggest banks send the pound soaring above 2.0600.
Overnight, NZD/USD traded to a high of 0.8072; AUD/USD to 0.8841 whilst GBP/USD to 2.0597. The AUD and NZD are likely to remain firm on the back of strong Australian producer prices and speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be raising interest rates to 8.25 percent later this week.
Elsewhere in Asia, the yen struggles to keep its gains. If a break of 120.80 is sustained, we would see a test of 118.70.
With renewed concerns on U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, new and existing U.S. home sales tomorrow would be key data to look out for.
GBP/USD Buy at 2.0605 for 2.0750 target. Stops at 2.0540.
Overnight, NZD/USD traded to a high of 0.8072; AUD/USD to 0.8841 whilst GBP/USD to 2.0597. The AUD and NZD are likely to remain firm on the back of strong Australian producer prices and speculation that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be raising interest rates to 8.25 percent later this week.
Elsewhere in Asia, the yen struggles to keep its gains. If a break of 120.80 is sustained, we would see a test of 118.70.
With renewed concerns on U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, new and existing U.S. home sales tomorrow would be key data to look out for.
GBP/USD Buy at 2.0605 for 2.0750 target. Stops at 2.0540.
Monday, July 23, 2007
Technical Analysis GBP/USD using Bollinger Band System
well...now it's the very confusing time...most traders trap on sell at 2.04.
Many traders asking me, it's still up or no?
trend still up, but NOT TOO STRONG ....
just wait to sell, if you buy, then you speculate with your money.
I will give you sell signal if it comes.
If you follow me to buy from 2.0147, just place stop profit on 2.0526.
Otherwise, up!
if you want to have conference call service, just add my domains yahoo.
thank you
News Highlights
The dollar continues to be pressured by U.S. subprime woes. New York session saw a fall in U.S. equities on rumors that a German bank will be reporting large subprime losses and also talk that Standard and Poor's could be downgrading European mortgages. This spurred an unwinding of carry trades. USD/JPY traded to a low of 120.88 on risk aversion. Overnight, AUD/USD traded to a low of 0.8755 whilst NZD/USD traded to a low of 0.7936. However losses were brief as markets took the chance to buy on dips. The pound however held steady on stronger second quarter GDP growth, growing 3.0% y/y.
Strong commodity prices continue to support the AUD, NZD and gold. Gold continues its rally to 686.00
A further fall in equities could trigger yet another bout of risk aversion. With the subprime sector being watched so closely, next week's reports of existing, new and pending home sales will be particularly market moving.
Sell USD/JPY at 121.90 for 120.77. Stops at 122.49.
Strong commodity prices continue to support the AUD, NZD and gold. Gold continues its rally to 686.00
A further fall in equities could trigger yet another bout of risk aversion. With the subprime sector being watched so closely, next week's reports of existing, new and pending home sales will be particularly market moving.
Sell USD/JPY at 121.90 for 120.77. Stops at 122.49.
Saturday, July 21, 2007
Conference Call Service on Domains Yahoo
There will be live conference call service, teaching us about Bollinger Band setting as you know a good manual indi. Taught by the Bollinger Band Master from Singapore, Named Ilham. The conference call will use Domains Yahoo as the priority. You can join it by add my yahoo account: sentosos@yahoo.com
The conference call will be held today at 11.00 GMT
Thank you
The conference call will be held today at 11.00 GMT
Thank you
Thursday, July 19, 2007
News Highlights
BoE minutes showed a 6-3 vote in favour of the interest rate hike in July, less hawkish than market expected. Markets still predict a hike to 6.00% by the end of the year, but there is less certainty now of another quarter point hike in 2008.
Canadian CPI declined by 0.2% in Jun from May, and came in at 2.2% y/y, below expectations for a 2.5% reading. Core CPI came in at 2.5% y/y, slightly below expectations of 2.6%.
US June CPI was broadly in-line with expectations. CPI increased 0.2% from May, and grew 2.7% y/y (exp 2.6%). Core CPI grew 2.2%, inline with market expectations.
US housing starts rose 2.3% in June to a 1467K unit annual rate, above the 1450K forecast. However, building permits fell 7.5% to hit a 10yr low of 1402K (exp 1490K).
Fed chief Bernanke told congress that US economy would grow slower than expected and inflation remained the chief concern. He also said that subprime issues would weigh on the economy for several quarters and would probably get worse before they get better.
USD/CAD is trading at 1.0448. Buy CAD at 1.0500, target for 1.0300, and place stop above 1.0610.
Canadian CPI declined by 0.2% in Jun from May, and came in at 2.2% y/y, below expectations for a 2.5% reading. Core CPI came in at 2.5% y/y, slightly below expectations of 2.6%.
US June CPI was broadly in-line with expectations. CPI increased 0.2% from May, and grew 2.7% y/y (exp 2.6%). Core CPI grew 2.2%, inline with market expectations.
US housing starts rose 2.3% in June to a 1467K unit annual rate, above the 1450K forecast. However, building permits fell 7.5% to hit a 10yr low of 1402K (exp 1490K).
Fed chief Bernanke told congress that US economy would grow slower than expected and inflation remained the chief concern. He also said that subprime issues would weigh on the economy for several quarters and would probably get worse before they get better.
USD/CAD is trading at 1.0448. Buy CAD at 1.0500, target for 1.0300, and place stop above 1.0610.
Wednesday, July 18, 2007
News Highlights
The German ZEW survey declined for a 2nd consecutive month to 10.4 in July, far weaker than the 19.8 expected by market.
US net foreign capital inflows for May totaled USD$105.9bln, far exceeding market expectations of around USD$70bln. The increase from April’s inflow of USD$83.6bln was entirely from private investors. Official sources were net sellers by USD$2.8Bln.
US June industrial production was up 0.5% (exp 0.4%), while capacity utilization came in at 81.7%, also slightly above the 81.5% forecast.
The NAHB housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of current market conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell to 24 this month, the lowest reading since January 1991.
The BoJ voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in June. The Board reaffirmed its intentions to raise rates gradually in-line with growth and inflation, but stressed the need to keep rates low to help the economy progress.
XAU/USD is trading at 665.40. Buy XAU at 661.00, target for 690, and place stop below 640.
US net foreign capital inflows for May totaled USD$105.9bln, far exceeding market expectations of around USD$70bln. The increase from April’s inflow of USD$83.6bln was entirely from private investors. Official sources were net sellers by USD$2.8Bln.
US June industrial production was up 0.5% (exp 0.4%), while capacity utilization came in at 81.7%, also slightly above the 81.5% forecast.
The NAHB housing market index, which tracks builders' perceptions of current market conditions and expectations for home sales over the next six months, fell to 24 this month, the lowest reading since January 1991.
The BoJ voted unanimously to keep rates on hold in June. The Board reaffirmed its intentions to raise rates gradually in-line with growth and inflation, but stressed the need to keep rates low to help the economy progress.
XAU/USD is trading at 665.40. Buy XAU at 661.00, target for 690, and place stop below 640.
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